Survival and conditional future value

Explore how survival probability and expected future value conditional on survival affect a simple model.

Compare two futures that both survive a difficult transition. One gives people meaningful choices, protection from severe suffering and ways to improve institutions. Another preserves a narrow group’s control while others have few ways to challenge it. Survival alone does not distinguish them.

S is the probability of surviving your chosen transition. F is expected future value conditional on survival, normalized to a benchmark you must name. In this small model, value outside survival is zero and expected value is S × F. F is a value fraction, not a second event probability.

Mathematical headroom does not show how much an intervention can achieve. Compare costs, expected effects, evidence and interactions.

What does your benchmark include, and what evidence would change your S or F estimate?

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